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The ideas behind my books have matured over the years. I have noticed notable changes in productivity and availability of food and goods. Compared to the times when I was young, there is now superabundance of industrial products, which are better and in many cases incredible. At the same time, I monitor current trends in science and technology, and what I notice is unbelievable progress. Many say that the rate of technological progress is exponential. In nano, bio and computer technologies, the extent of discoveries is impressive. Ten years ago, the human genome was sequenced. Today the role of thousands of genes is being worked out. A smart phone is as powerful as a supercomputer of a few years ago. Nano achievements have the idea of being magical. 3D printing will revolutionize manufacturing and too many other ideas are shaping an amazing near future. |
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Utopia: In my opinion, a utopia needs three things to be successful: no material needs, a health system which assures wellbeing for everybody and personal freedom. In my series 'living dangerously in utopia' these conditions are met as follows: This point-of-view may sound naive to many. I know that war is a historic reality. There are many causes of war and associated conflicts, but what I see is that the people are not promoting or doing it. Governments and opposition groups do it, supposedly to get rid of a bad government. The main idea is to gain something: land, oil, natural resources, slaves or something. Sadly, religion is another reason for war and its cause, and benefits, are even more diffuse. In the USA, middle-class people do not go to war, except for a few officers whose families are associated with war because their ancestors have profited from it. If we think about this: it is the lack of economic opportunity that forces the poor to enroll. It could be argued that there are patriots/religious people who will gladly give their lives for the glory or to go to heaven. The USA and Russia have lost their recent full-fledged wars, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Afghanistan, and there is no reason to believe that it will not keep on happening. Even Korea was a tie. There are many reasons, but I sincerely believe that war is rewarding only when you have a bunch of indigent and ignorant male peasants and draft them with the promise to rape, loot and maim. It helps if you add a flag or a religious icon. Thus, war is propaganda driven, to satisfy the greed of politicians-industrialists-aristocrats and normal people would rather do without it. Especially if they are not poor! I believe war will disappear on its own when everybody in the world grows out of poverty. To reinforce my point, there is tremendous biotechnological progress and it is thinkable that means to prolong human lifespan could be discovered. It then becomes very stupid to sacrifice a long life full of promise in exchange of an elusive, and unprovable, trip to heaven. However, just in case I am wrong, 'The War that Saved the World' assumes that the concept of war is ingrained in human nature. Governments will also fizzle away, when Artificial Intelligence becomes smarter and more organized than a CEO, it will not take long to see that AI could also supplement/supplant the people in charge of making those non-optimal decisions. |
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Trends: Economy: My scenarios consider a continuation of the technological progress that we are experiencing nowadays. A much better understanding of how biology works, enhanced by progress in nanotechnology and of course in computers, makes scarcity a thing of the past. Sex: Universal love and sex is the norm. In a society where every person is young, beautiful and free, sex is a recreational delight. If your partner leaves you, or cheats, or is busy, just find another one. Everybody is more than willing. Love me today and tomorrow love somebody else! Work: Nobody works. Everybody does something. If you want to start an enterprise, just do it. The resources are available. If you need a partner convince an AI or a friend to join you. If you are successful, good for you. You will get more money, more recognition or something. If you fail, bad luck, just start another one or take it easy for a few years. There is no need to work. Molecular fabrication, robots with unlimited artificial intelligence and the few human beings that are doing something provide everything. There is always somebody interested in scientific research, designing fabulous new things and using these fabulous new things. Let the machines do the work! Technology: Instead of a world where energy is consumed in larger and larger amounts, this utopia follows the current trend of computers: the size of a building (1960) needing an electric power plant, to a PC the size of a box (1990) connected to an outlet, to a smartphone (2010) with a minuscule battery. Even though it could be argued that 500 million smart phones consume more energy that an archaic supercomputer, it could also be reasoned that progress is still going on in many efficiency features. Small is good, nano is better! Following this idea, with solar panels of increasing efficiency, better batteries and super-capacitors, super-strong and ultra-light materials and a few technological and scientific breakthroughs, there is no need for huge power consumption. At least to provide an extremely good standard of living and even if there is a need, solar power is enormous, there is no need for anything else. |